The effect of multi-incentive policies on the competition of drivetrain technologies

Facing global climate change and the oncoming shortage of fossil resources, it is necessary to reduce overall primary energy consumption. There is a strong need for action concerning car traffic as a main originator of greenhouse gas emissions by use of fossil energy. For a strong mitigation effect, the technological improvement of today‘s petrol and diesel engines has to be accompanied by the promotion of alternative vehicles, still being sparsely represented in most carfleets. The spread of one or more new drivetrain technologies throughout the transportation sector represents an innovation diffusion process, which is needed in order to achieve long-term climate and energy policy goals. However, there exist no adequate innovation diffusion models that accurately explain the main driving forces between competing alternative drivetrain technologies and their diffusion rate. This work contributes to the understanding of the fundamental diffusion processes by developing, analysing and applying a model for the market penetration of competing alternative drivetrain technologies. Results are presented for competing petrol and diesel internal combustion engines and electric hybrids as well as natural gas vehicles in the French passenger car market.